'Masterly Inactivity'

By Wiliam Safire
New York Times
February 25, 2002 

WASHINGTON -- The way to end the Palestinian guerrilla war
against Israel is to demonstrate forcefully that such a war
cannot be won. Only when that sinks in can Arab and Jewish
states prosper side by side. 

Terrorist leaders in and out of the Arafat camp believe
instead that the mutual bloodshed they have instigated will
cause the U.S. or U.N. to intervene and impose a comprehensive 
deal that would render Israel defenseless, ripe for the "final 
phase" of their Palestinian plan. 

Therefore, the worst policy for the United States would be to 
repeat the Clinton mistake of unending intercession. Arranging 
White House photo ops to bolster Arafat and sending American 
envoys to be humiliated again by suicide missions would feed 
the extremists' hopes for victory. 

On the contrary, the U.S. should redouble its pressure on the 
Palestinian Authority to act like a potential government - 
to arrest, try and seriously punish the terrorists who make 
negotiations impossible. Our intercession as an intermediary 
must first be earned by a show of good faith. 

Of course, America's long-awaited "masterly inactivity," as
diplomats say, is being criticized by what's left of the
left in Israel. It is echoed here by those who still cannot
grasp that the underlying reason for the failure of nine
cease-fires is the Palestinian belief that Israel can be
worn down. 

That is why a dovecote flutters at any seeming "movement."
The Saudi ruler said to my colleague Tom Friedman that he
was mulling a speech calling for "full normalization of
relations" if Israel handed over the whole West Bank and
divided its capital. That reiterated a position taken 20
years ago by King Fahd, and demands even more concessions
than were offered by the repudiated Ehud Barak. 

Tom's straightforward report was clearly attributed to
Prince Abdullah. A subsequent article by a non-journalist
dove, however, enthusiastically quoted unnamed "Saudi
sources" as being much more forthcoming, even graciously
bestowing Israeli sovereignty on the Western Wall. 

(I know such unquotable types who manipulate the gullible.
They also claim that the Saudis had the Palestinians all
primed to accept Barak's wild offer, but that by not
holding Arafat's feet to the fire, the too-eager Clinton
blew the deal. Saudis now spread this oil slick to
ingratiate themselves with Bush people.) 

Saudi posturing serves three purposes: (1) to counter U.S.
repugnance at financial support of hate-America mosques
that resulted in the Sept. 11 attacks by 15 Saudis, (2) to
pretend that the Israeli-Palestinian dispute is the source
of the Arab world's discontents, a pretense also adopted by
Osama bin Laden, and (3) to prepare the ground for a denial
of our Saudi bases to support an attack on Saddam Hussein's
germ factories. 

The response of Israel's Ariel Sharon to this warmed-over
whining in new bottles, as well as to recent communications
with Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, has been respectful: all
proposals, including Israel's, should be discussed.
Arafat's arrest of the killers of an Israeli cabinet
minister drew a calibrated, skeptical pullback. 

Sharon is determined to continue governing from the center.
Doves now overcoming their disillusion should note that the
alternative to him would surely not come from the left. 

In lieu of all-out counterattack, Sharon is discussing
buffer zones to protect Israeli population centers and
airfields from terrorist incursions or rockets - not a
wall, certainly not a boundary, but two-mile strips of land
with mobile patrols alerted by electronic sensors. Forces
would still be empowered to strike deeper at planners and
perpetrators of violence. 

Israel's unity government is not fooling itself. This will
reduce civilian casualties but not end the guerrilla war.
That will come only with the Arab realization that the will
of Israel's people cannot be broken and that the U.S. will
not force a false peace or acquiesce in U.N. meddling. 

In phased negotiations to follow, Jerusalem will not be
divided, nor will the West Bank and its Jordan Valley be
wholly given over, nor will an invasion of Arab immigrants
overwhelm the Jewish state. Arafat's extremist expectations
require victory in a guerrilla war. That war will not be
won. 

Under realistic leadership, Palestine will become a
contiguous state unburdened by military expenses and its
people the pride of the Arab world. The timing depends not
on American brokerage, but on when Palestinians defeat
their enemies within.